Frameworks for decisions that must survive scrutiny
Durable, practical thinking across strategy, research, investment analysis, and software. Each piece states when the method fits, what evidence it needs, how it fails, and what a decision-ready output looks like.
Market Entry Is a Sequence of Options, Not a Launch Date
Choose a beachhead, stage capital, and make each commitment earn the next one through evidence.
Repricing Without Burning Trust
Measure value and willingness to pay, redesign packaging, model migration, and monitor the rollout.
Rebuild Retention Before You Underwrite It
Reconstruct cohorts from raw evidence before a headline metric enters the valuation or downside case.
What to Automate First, and What to Leave Alone
Prioritize observable, bounded work and design exception economics before the happy path.
Evaluating an AI Business Application Before Production
Beat a baseline on held-out work, set failure thresholds, and operate cost, latency, and drift.
Evidence Grades for Investment Memos
Separate established facts, probable judgments, contested claims, and unknowns at the claim level.
When to Stop Researching: The Expected Value of Information
Price what another answer can change, then buy the cheapest decisive test and stop with discipline.
Market Sizing That Survives Diligence
Triangulate top-down, bottom-up, and demand-side estimates into a range you can defend.
A Moat Taxonomy for Private-Market Diligence
Translate defensibility claims into observable evidence and leading indicators of erosion.