Business Consulting

Growth Planning

A quantified growth model that shows where growth actually comes from, and where the next dollar should go.

Most growth plans are targets with adjectives. Ours are models: we decompose historical growth into its arithmetic sources, measure the unit economics of each acquisition channel, and build a forward plan where every initiative has an expected contribution and a confidence level.

Who this is for

Founders and revenue leaders who need growth to be a system, not a hope, typically post-product-market-fit.

How the work is done

Growth accounting

We decompose net growth into new, expansion, contraction, and churn components, then build cohort retention curves. Where the data supports it, survival analysis (Kaplan–Meier estimates) separates genuine retention improvements from mix effects.

Unit economics

Contribution-margin-based LTV and fully loaded CAC by channel, with honest treatment of payback period and discount rates. We test LTV/CAC sensitivity to retention assumptions, because that is where such models usually flatter.

Model the engine

A forward model links funnel conversion, capacity constraints, and market saturation. For adoption dynamics we use S-curve and Bass-diffusion logic rather than straight-line extrapolation; for state transitions (trial→paid→expansion), simple Markov-chain structures keep the arithmetic honest.

Allocate and experiment

Budget moves toward marginal, not average, return. Where evidence is thin, we design experiments with explicit power calculations so you learn cheaply before you spend expensively.

Engagement blueprint

How the Growth Planning engagement runs

We begin with the decision, use the evidence that can genuinely change it, and make the reasoning reviewable from first input to final handover.

What we need to begin

  • Cohort-level revenue data covering new, expansion, contraction, and churn, ideally eight quarters or more.
  • Acquisition spend by channel, with fully loaded CAC and payback where the client tracks it.
  • Funnel volumes stage by stage (traffic, lead, trial, paid, expansion) so transitions can be modeled honestly.
  • Contribution margin by segment, since blended margin hides where growth actually pays.

If an input is unavailable, we state the gap, its effect on confidence, and the agreed workaround. It is never quietly ignored.

Your four-phase engagement map

  1. Phase 1

    Growth accounting

    Decompose net growth into new, expansion, contraction, and churn; build cohort retention curves and, where data allows, survival analysis.

  2. Phase 2

    Unit economics

    Contribution-margin LTV and fully loaded CAC by channel, with honest payback and sensitivity to retention assumptions.

  3. Phase 3

    Model the engine

    A forward model linking funnel conversion, capacity, and saturation, using S-curve and Bass logic and simple Markov structures.

  4. Phase 4

    Allocate and experiment

    Move budget toward marginal return; design experiments with explicit power calculations where evidence is thin.

See the engagement standard we apply across every practice

Methods and models we draw on

  • Growth accounting
  • Cohort & survival analysis (Kaplan–Meier)
  • LTV/CAC & payback modeling
  • Bass diffusion & S-curves
  • Markov-chain funnel modeling
  • Marginal-return budget allocation
  • Experiment design & power analysis

Methods are chosen for the problem, not the brochure, expect a subset of these, applied properly, plus whatever the evidence demands.

The decision this enables

A growth plan where every line item has an owner, an expected contribution, and a way to be proven wrong.