Business Strategy
A defensible strategic direction, built from competitive analysis, explicit economics, and decision science.
Strategy is a set of choices made under uncertainty with imperfect information and competitors who respond. We treat it that way: rather than a vision document, you get a small number of options rigorously framed, the economics of each made explicit, and a recommendation whose assumptions are written down and testable.
Who this is for
Founders and CEOs at an inflection point, new competition, plateauing growth, a pivot, or a resource-allocation fight.
How the work is done
Diagnose the situation
We establish where profit and advantage actually come from today: industry structure through a quantified five-forces lens (concentration ratios, entry-barrier economics, buyer power), value-chain analysis to locate margin, and a DuPont-style decomposition of your financials to separate operating skill from structural position.
Generate real options
Good strategy needs genuinely different alternatives. We construct 3–4 distinct strategic postures and, where competitor response matters, model it explicitly, simple game-theoretic reaction analysis beats assuming rivals stand still.
Evaluate under uncertainty
Each option becomes a driver model. We run scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation on the variables that matter, express outcomes as distributions rather than point forecasts, and use decision trees with expected-value logic where choices are staged. Tornado charts show which assumptions actually move the answer.
Commit and instrument
The recommendation is written as a decision memo: the choice, the reasoning, the base rates consulted, the kill criteria, and the leading indicators to watch. Strategy that cannot be monitored cannot be corrected.
Methods and models we draw on
- Five-forces & industry structure
- Value-chain analysis
- DuPont decomposition
- Game-theoretic response modeling
- Scenario planning
- Monte Carlo simulation
- Decision trees & expected value
- Reference-class forecasting
Methods are chosen for the problem, not the brochure, expect a subset of these, applied properly, plus whatever the evidence demands.
The decision this enables
A strategic commitment you can defend line-by-line, and revisit on evidence, not mood.