Business Model Evaluation
Whether the model underneath a deal survives contact with stress: economics, durability, and downside.
Before terms are argued, the model deserves interrogation: does this business convert growth into cash, does its advantage survive competition, and what does the downside actually look like? We model the P&L under stress and put probabilities, not adjectives, on survival.
Who this is for
Investors underwriting a deal; boards re-underwriting a strategy.
How the work is done
Reconstruct the economics
Unit economics rebuilt from raw data rather than the deck: contribution by cohort and segment, CAC honesty (fully loaded, by channel), and the operating-leverage profile that determines how growth translates to margin.
Test the durability
The moat claims tested against observable evidence, retention curves, pricing power history, switching-cost arithmetic, with leading indicators of erosion identified for post-investment monitoring.
Model the downside
Scenario P&Ls including the unpleasant ones: growth stall, CAC inflation, churn shock. Monte Carlo on the key drivers yields a distribution of outcomes and a candid runway-and-survival analysis under each financing assumption.
Price the implications
What the analysis means for terms: valuation sensitivity to the contested assumptions, structures that protect against the specific downside identified, and the monitoring covenants worth asking for.
Methods and models we draw on
- Cohort-based unit economics
- Operating-leverage analysis
- Moat stress-testing
- Scenario P&L modeling
- Monte Carlo simulation
- Runway & survival analysis
- Terms sensitivity analysis
Methods are chosen for the problem, not the brochure, expect a subset of these, applied properly, plus whatever the evidence demands.
The decision this enables
Conviction about the machine, not the story, and terms informed by the actual downside.
Research, not investment advice
Jagdeep Ventures produces independent research and analysis for informational and educational purposes. To keep that boundary clear and professional:
- No recommendations. Nothing we deliver constitutes a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security or financial instrument, or to pursue any investment strategy.
- No advisory registration. Jagdeep Ventures LLC is not registered as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or research analyst with the SEC, SEBI, or any other regulator, and does not provide personalized investment advice. No fiduciary or advisory relationship is created by an engagement.
- Scope. Our work evaluates businesses, markets, and evidence quality. Decisions about whether and how to invest, including suitability, sizing, and timing, remain solely with the client and their licensed advisers.
- Conflicts. We disclose any material conflict of interest before accepting an engagement and do not trade in securities of companies under active coverage during an engagement.
- Jurisdiction. Clients are responsible for ensuring that use of our research complies with the laws and regulations applicable to them. Where an engagement touches regulated activity, we will say so and step back.
Analysis involves judgment under uncertainty; estimates can be wrong, and past results do not guarantee future outcomes.